I just ran two million regressions elections
January 31st, 2008
Actually, because Excel sucks, I only ran 13026 elections (xls, 4.5 megs).
My predictions for next Tuesday:
- Obama will definitely win Illinois
- He will probably win Colorado and Georgia (> 65% chance to win each)
- He will definitely lose Massachusetts and Oklahoma
- Connecticut is a close call
- He’ll probably lose the rest (< 38% chance)
- He will win 44-50% of the total delegates
- He’s not likely to win super Tuesday (i.e. get more than 50% of the delegates), but it definitely won’t knock him out of the race
- 1/3rd of my predictions will be wrong
That’s it. I’m done with this election crap. I got to write my first VBA script though…