By my calculations, even after tonights wins, Clinton has to get 61% of the vote in the remaining primaries to win the nomination. Tonight is being narrated as a big win for Clinton and she only got 51-52% of the votes.
The next big primary is Pennsylvania on April 22. If you don’t have a calendar in front of you, that’s 7 weeks from now. Then the next (and last) big state to hold a primary will be North Carolina two weeks later. If those elections were held today (and by pollsters), they’d split those two states by about the same margins (about 14%). To win the nomination, she’d have to win by even more in Penn and do a complete 180 down in Carolina.
Granted, Pennsylvania comes first so Clinton could win big there and then use the momentum to turn her fate in North Carolina. I don’t know about you, but it seems unlikely that she’d be able to swing so many voters especially given the demographics. Also, for her to win she’d have to get about 2/3rds of the vote in the smaller States. She’s only won one State (*ahem* Arkansas *ahem*) by this margin.
In what universe does it make sense for Mrs. Clinton to stay in this race? If she does, she’ll spend the next 7-9 weeks softening up Obama for the general election. In what way can this help Obama or the democrats?
UPDATE: If Clinton only wins 45% of the caucus vote, Obama will actually win more delegates in Texas (despite losing the primary vote)… weird.