Hamilton not Menzie?

This was on James Hamilton’s blog over the weekend:

Not the sort of headlines [bankruptices of a regional airline and a towel store] you’d expect to see if you thought we’re not in a recession. And not what you’d want to see if you still had hopes of avoiding one.

Ummm… headlines are exogenous to beliefs we’re in a recession? Don’t think so.

(h/t Craig “not craigslist” Newmark)

3 thoughts on “Hamilton not Menzie?”

  1. Umm… I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed any camp on any side of any political axis that doesn’t claim that the media is biased against them.

    The best I can discern is that the media is a libero-conservative anarcho-fascist commie business propaganda mouthpiece, hell-bent on forwarding a conservative gay pro-life celebrity Judeo-Islamo-Christian ethnic agenda while glossing over the ongoing atrocities in . They give way too much airtime to those Euro-Hollywood-Washington wingnuts and their screwy corporate traditional jingoistic San Francisco values.

    Really, if they wanted to do what’s best for the country, they would devote some real attention to the environment. I mean Darfur. Wait… I mean Myanmar. Wait… I mean election rigging. Wait… I mean guns in the schools. Wait… I mean internet predators. Wait… I mean activist judges. Wait… I mean illegal immigrants taking our jerbs. Wait…

  2. Exactly. The point was that tracking headlines is a terrible way to track recessions. If headline writers think we’re in a recession, they’ll produce headlines to match. I have no confidence that headline writers know anything, in particular, about recessions to make them good prognosticators on the topic. They’re an specially bad source given this is election season and they have known political biases.

    BTW, the op-ed I linked to is grounded in actual data. The same GDP numbers are reported differently if there’s an elephant rather than a donkey in office.

  3. Yeah… though a donkey sympathizer can probably make the same observation about federal deficit growth reporting (off topic).

    Tangential topic: have you ever looked at the State of the Union tag clouds?

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