esr speaks it: All data, including primary un-”corrected” datasets, must be available for auditing by third parties. All modeling code must be published. The assumptions made in data reduction and smoothing must be an explicitly documented part of the work product. These requirements would kill off AGW alarmism as surely as a bullet through the […]

What is a catastrophe?

In the previous post, I mentioned two types of catastrophe: cliff-diving and gradual. Suppose the first is a sudden major decrease in output. How much would returns to capital have to decline to get 1% average yearly returns over a century (given 6% “usual” returns)? This is the solution to this problem: If I got […]

But innovation is endogenous, too

Risk aversion usually makes investments look less attractive. In the standard story, then, as risk aversion goes up, we would spend less money today to avert future catastrophes. Martin Weitzman argues, however, this relationship reverses when we’re uncertain about future productivity levels. For if it turns out that productivity is low in the future (e.g. […]

Super cool

Data analysis!



Cool down, cool down

Even if The Emails discredit all the “science” on tree-rings, there’s still ice cores and bore hole data. And even if all paleoclimatology is BS, thermometer readings of temperatures show a sharp spike in the last couple of decades. One piece of evidence for AGW has, perhaps!, been discredited. Not all evidence has been discredited. […]

Other people’s emails

I agree with McArdle who agrees with Cowen and Hanson. There appears to be consensus in the literature… Lesson one: scientists are people, people are jerks and that Mann guys seems to be an especially big person. Lesson two: its way too fun reading other people’s email. Lesson three (the real lesson): data and methods […]

How much is a “big change” in the climate?

Here’s the density of temperature changes over centuries. I used these data and calculate the average change in temperature per century. Last century’s temperature increase of 0.8 degrees C was an outlier (but not an extreme outlier). About 95% of temperature changes were slower than last century’s temperature change. If the climate models are correct […]

Mass outbreak of illiteracy?

I just read The Chapter Five (in this book) and I’ll go as far as to say the critics don’t even have a point. The chapter motivates geo-engineering without saying anything outlandish about the science (as far as this semi-informed lay-person can tell). There’s not even as much as an implication in the whole chapter […]

Does this argument really work?

Tim Lambert, responding to this opinion piece ((why in the deuce is science being argued in the opinion pages!)), says: If the hot spot really is missing is does not prove that CO2 is not causing warming, but it would indicate something wrong with the models. (Which might mean that things are worse than what […]